Covid-19 Revisit

Shellandshilo1956

Active member
no there are 28 million confirmed cases, 13 million recoveries and 15 outstanding cases.... you even said so just got the wrong conclusion......
I think you meant to say there are only 15 million people currently with C-19 ;)


That also means 300,000 more will die.........
March 2020 to March 2021 would be 800,000 deaths......
United States Coronavirus: 28,787,505 Cases and 511,685 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)
of the 19 million recovered there is a 3% death-rate. If this trend continues there would be 840,000 deaths,
More realistically would be a middle point of 2.3% which would be 650,000....
Of course it's just speculation, time will tell....

Considering only about 2 million die a year in the USA this a very substantial number....

I have no idea why you are repeating what I've already said. But YES, there WERE 28M+ TOTAL confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the US. This TOTAL number is made up of 13M people who have recovered and 15M people who are still infected. What is the difference in context, in saying that there are still 15M outstanding confirmed cases of Covid-19, or that there are 15M people currently with Covid-19? What exactly did you think I meant? And, what specific conclusion did I get wrong? Based on the mortality rate(500K people dead/28.2M people infected x 100% = 1.8%), we can EXPECT that out of the 15M still infected, that 14.7M people will recover. This leaves only 300K people still infected(less than 1% of the pop.), whose outcomes are undetermined yet. Which is what I said. What is the confusion?

Your mistake is making the massive assumption that of the 300K people left infected are ALL going to die. There are just too many variables that you seem to be ignoring(age, sex, core health, access to doctors and hospitals, etc.). I don't just assume that all 300K people will die, just to create panic, fear, and confusion, based only on my flawed conclusion. How do you know that 300K people will die from this flu-like virus? How can you just add 300K uncertain deaths, onto 500K certain deaths, and even call it speculation? There is a another method to determine the expected number of deaths from this virus. If it took 356 days(Mar2, 2020-Feb 21, 2021) for America to reach 500K deaths, then it should take 213.6 more days(7 months) to reach 800K deaths. If all the other factors remain constant(which they never do)!

Your other mistake is just a blatant logical contradiction. How can a mortality rate exist for people who have already made a full recovery from this virus? This is like saying a person can die from cancer, even after they have recovered from it. Either you have recovered from the disease, or you haven't. Both are easily testable. So, how many people have died from Covid-19, after fully recovering from it? One? That would give us a mortality rate of 0.00000005.2% for the 19M who have recovered. In other words, Buckley's chance of dying. So, lets see the stats!

Finally, there have been over 2.8M deaths each year in the US since 2017.(NOT 2M). In fact, in 2020 it is estimated that the death toll will reach over 3M(again not 2M) for the first time in the US. Using faulty logic, faulty data, and faulty conclusions, just to imply that Covid-19 deaths represents close to half of all deaths in America(800K out of 2M, or 40%), is just being intellectually dishonest, and socially irresponsible. It actually represents 15.1% of the total US deaths in 2020(500K / 2.8M + 500K x 100% = 15.1%).

So, just more of the same disinformation, for the gullible/ignorant.
 

pinkeye

Wonder woman
Dr Rochelle Walensky, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, was asked about assertions that the US coronavirus death toll seriously underestimates how many Americans have died in the pandemic.

Walensky noted that the pandemic is causing “excess mortality” from a number of causes, including delayed access to medical care.

The CDC director predicated that history books would record a US death toll from the pandemic that is “far greater than the numbers we have been counting”.
Like I pointed out months and months ago..

the recorded numbers are likely to be anything up to 20% or more , under-reported.

Statisticians think it is so.. and who am I to argue. ?
 

Shellandshilo1956

Active member
yet I never said that
Here we go again, with the denials. So, you didn't say,

"That also means 300,000 more will die.........
March 2020 to March 2021 would be 800,000 deaths...... ".


Then you stated,

"Considering only about 2 million die a year in the USA this a very substantial number.... ".

All this information is wrong, and is based on false assumptions. And, then you used some appeal to authority to justify more false assumption? All based on speculation about the number of infections that have NOT been reported? Really? Maybe the aliens left it here before they left? You can make up any story you like, if no one can disprove it. I prefer that my conclusions be based solely on what we DO KNOW for certain. Not what we DON'T KNOW for certain.

"..of the 19 million recovered there is a 3% death-rate".

Where did you get this death rate for the 19 Million people who have recovered? Actually I did make a mistake. I didn't take into account the 500K people who have died from the virus. So lets look at the truth, shall we? All facts are as of the 23rd Feb. 2021.

The mortality rate, based on the facts that we DO know is
1.8%(512,767 people dead from Covid-19 / 28,829,173 total confirmed infected = 1.8% mortality rate).

The number of people still infected in the US is 9,202,260(28,829,173 total infected - 19,114,146 recovered - 512,767 died = 9,202,260 people still infected).

The number of expected recoveries would be 9,036,619(9,202,260 people still infected x 0.982 survival rate = 9,036,619 people expected to survive).

The number of people who will either live or die from the virus is 165,640 people(9,202,260 people still infected - 9,036,619 expected recoveries = 165,640 people who will die or survive).

Therefore, if it took 358 days(Mar 2nd-Feb 23rd) to reach 512,767 deaths from Covid-19, it will take another 191 days(6.3 months) to reach 800,000 deaths from this virus. If everything else stays constant. None of this is rocket science!

So, to sum up all your errors, and things you claim you never said or implied,

2m people do not die every year in the US. It been over 2.8M people since 2017. And will be over 3M in 2020.
There is NO mortality rate for survivors of this virus.
There are only 165,640 people in the US expected to live or die from this virus, NOT 300,000 people.
You don't just add the number of people expected to die from this virus, with the people who actually have died from this virus.
Speculations, suppositions, opinions, suspicions, and conjectures, only feed the imagination. They are no substitute for the facts.

Your are entitled to manipulate your own facts, but NOT your own logic.
 

DonDeeHippy

Active member
Here we go again, with the denials. So, you didn't say,

"That also means 300,000 more will die.........
March 2020 to March 2021 would be 800,000 deaths...... ".


Then you stated,

"Considering only about 2 million die a year in the USA this a very substantial number.... ".

All this information is wrong, and is based on false assumptions. And, then you used some appeal to authority to justify more false assumption? All based on speculation about the number of infections that have NOT been reported? Really? Maybe the aliens left it here before they left? You can make up any story you like, if no one can disprove it. I prefer that my conclusions be based solely on what we DO KNOW for certain. Not what we DON'T KNOW for certain.

"..of the 19 million recovered there is a 3% death-rate".

Where did you get this death rate for the 19 Million people who have recovered? Actually I did make a mistake. I didn't take into account the 500K people who have died from the virus. So lets look at the truth, shall we? All facts are as of the 23rd Feb. 2021.

The mortality rate, based on the facts that we DO know is
1.8%(512,767 people dead from Covid-19 / 28,829,173 total confirmed infected = 1.8% mortality rate).

The number of people still infected in the US is 9,202,260(28,829,173 total infected - 19,114,146 recovered - 512,767 died = 9,202,260 people still infected).

The number of expected recoveries would be 9,036,619(9,202,260 people still infected x 0.982 survival rate = 9,036,619 people expected to survive).

The number of people who will either live or die from the virus is 165,640 people(9,202,260 people still infected - 9,036,619 expected recoveries = 165,640 people who will die or survive).

Therefore, if it took 358 days(Mar 2nd-Feb 23rd) to reach 512,767 deaths from Covid-19, it will take another 191 days(6.3 months) to reach 800,000 deaths from this virus. If everything else stays constant. None of this is rocket science!

So, to sum up all your errors, and things you claim you never said or implied,

2m people do not die every year in the US. It been over 2.8M people since 2017. And will be over 3M in 2020.
There is NO mortality rate for survivors of this virus.
There are only 165,640 people in the US expected to live or die from this virus, NOT 300,000 people.
You don't just add the number of people expected to die from this virus, with the people who actually have died from this virus.
Speculations, suppositions, opinions, suspicions, and conjectures, only feed the imagination. They are no substitute for the facts.

Your are entitled to manipulate your own facts, but NOT your own logic.
shell when you quote me out of context, no use conversing with you......
 

pinkeye

Wonder woman
so anyway

the virus has changed... apparently ( I won't say mutated 'cos Shell objects to that description).

There are 'variants' with different profiles. like the UK or South African strain, and there is no reason to expect these variations to cease.
So big pharma has a guaranteed cash cow for the foreseeable future.

Altho we are very fortunate in Oz, we can't get complacent. Seems just a day after saying all is good for travel btwn OZ and NZ.. now ..it is not . 14 days quarantine now in place due to transmission of virus amongst recent visitors.

I hear some morons are spruiking 'CRUISING' already.. anyone who can't wait to get back in a Petri dish have huge mental problems.
Fuckwits with too much money.. IMHO.

So.. the efficacy of current vaccines is very important.
 
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