Poll Tracking

[HBS Guy]

This weeks Essential steady on 53:47 for Labor.

Lib & Lab both on 37%PV and that is better for Labor than the Coalition.

Greens have gone down 1% since the election, that has been the pattern for a while now. Guess the non–stop boosting of Hanson by the media has caused that. Nevertheless Hanson’s vote too is static: Greens and Hanson 9%PV each, MrX on 3% down from 4%—his crap re the statewide SA blackout has cost him and he deserved it to cost him.

Crazy crazy world. People, we are told, no longer trust the main Parties so what do they do?

3% support a Lib with another name, famous for getting his face on telly but little else

9% support a supposed left/progressive/environmental Party who no longer care about the environment and are just another bunch of neocons, Libs in other words. Yes, may vote more against the govt than Labor does but NEVER on the important issues.

9% support a populist who votes with the govt routinely and supports cutting penalty rates. Main attraction: racism/xenophobia.

In other questions, people hate (2:1) the penalty rate cut and want the govt to legislate so they don’t happen. 57% day business will just make bigger profits.

21% support Truffles and Shorten in their jobs but more vote for “don’t know” Lift your game, Bill, show more passion and anger at the shit the shambles is pulling!

[HBS Guy]

ER still 53:47 to Labor.

Lib PV down 2, ON up 2 on PV. The Guardian made a lot of this but in light of the WA result I give it no credence and I bet that once again this result will wash out.

ALP PV down 1%, bet that is just a drop to the right of the decimal point, rounding error basically. that will be back next week. I am looking for one extra point for Labor in the near future.

Some interesting questions on tax increases: seems the Libs debt & deficit rhetoric is coming back to bite them on the bum, I would think the electorate won’t put up with more transfer of wealth upwards.

Also questions on approval, better PM etc. Once Shorten shows more anger and passion those figures will change, right now pretty meaningless IMHO.


http://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport

[HBS Guy]

GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes
#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 45 (-4) ALP 55 (+4) #auspol
7:31 PM - 26 Mar 2017

178 178 Retweets 97 97 likes

[HBS Guy]

ER down to 53:47.

Next week this proLib result will start being washed out. We have seen this before.

Does indicate the real TPP support for Labor is over 53% which is not good if you are a Lib supporter.

[HBS Guy]

ER 53:47 to Labor.

Libs must have gone down a bit but the Nats went up, next week that will all be washed out and I think it may be more 54:46. That is where I think it really sits, pretty much.

Obviously, Libs need to change tack, part of which is changing Leader—Malscum Turdfull has no political capital left. Policies also need to change. Morons want to kick the housing can a bit further down the road by letting idiots access their super to buy a house, boosting demand and house prices. Gonna be an almighty crash, maybe after as little as two interest rate hikes by the RBA. So rule out Morriscum for PM.

[HBS Guy]

ER 53:47 to Labor.

Libs must have gone down a bit but the Nats went up, next week that will all be washed out and I think it may be more 54:46. That is where I think it really sits, pretty much.

Obviously, Libs need to change tack, part of which is changing Leader—Malscum Turdfull has no political capital left. Policies also need to change. Morons want to kick the housing can a bit further down the road by letting idiots access their super to buy a house, boosting demand and house prices. Gonna be an almighty crash, maybe after as little as two interest rate hikes by the RBA. So rule out Morriscum for PM.

[HBS Guy]

National shit sheet:

Labor’s lead to 52 to 48 per cent in two-party terms and improving voter satisfaction with Malcolm Turnbull.

The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, shows the government has slightly improved its position from three weeks ago when Labor led by 53 to 47 per cent in two-party terms.

But the Coalition’s primary vote has not changed from 36 per cent despite a huge effort to attract public support for tighter rules for skilled foreign workers and a test on “Australian values” for new citizens.

The Coalition’s primary vote remains six percentage points below the result in its narrow election victory last July, with Labor continuing to hold the commanding lead it established in the polls last September.

Labor’s primary vote slipped from 36 to 35 per cent compared to the Newspoll three weeks ago while the Greens saw their primary vote fall from 10 to 9 per cent and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation held its primary vote at 10 per cent.

In other words, some insignificant changes of ±1% here and there.

I think 53:47 is still where it is at and I bet the next Newspoll will show that.

[HBS Guy]

Essnetial: The survey has Labor retaining its lead over the Coalition on the two-party preferred measure, 53% to 47% – the same result as last week. A Newspoll survey published on Sunday night had Labor ahead 52% to 48%.

[HBS Guy]

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch
#EMRS TAS poll: Lib 39(+4) ALP 34 (+5) GRN 15(-3) OTH 7(-3) PHON 3(-3)http://www.emrs.com.au/pdfs/EMRS%20State%20Voting%20Intentions%20Report%20-%20May%202017.pdf … #politas

Another sign we've passed peak PHON
7:25 PM - 5 May 2017
1 1 Retweet 2 2 likes

http://www.emrs.com.au/pdfs/EMRS%20State%20Voting%20Intentions%20Report%20-%20May%202017.pdf

Have we passed peak Green too? Hope so. Biggest handicap to getting sound environmental laws passed, e.g. investing in nuclear. Started off as NIMBYs, finished up as neocons. What failures!

[HBS Guy]

Essential is 52:48 to Labor.

Both Labor and Libs went up 1% on PV. Greens gave up 1% to ON.

None of this is worth speculating about, all far inside the Margin of Error of 2.8%.

Doubt there is anything real behind this—the Libs are as big a shambles as they have ever been and nothing has really happened to change voters attitudes.

Will see next week.

Guardian reports the sample was 1774 which is odd: Essential combines two weekly panels of 1000 each so not sure where the 1774 comes from. Edit: yup, two panels just shy of 1000 each for some reason.

[HBS Guy]

Lib & Lab went back 1%, ON picked up 2%.

Garbage. Statistical flukes. No movement over 2.8% margin of error.

Anyway, overall still 52:48 to Labor. Next week be back to normal 53:47 I reckon.

[HBS Guy]

Newspoll:

Labor has cemented its gains in voter support after weeks of argument over school funding and energy security, with the latest Newspoll showing the Coalition continues to trail Labor by 47 to 53 per cent in two-party-preferred terms.

Voters have marked down Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten in another rebuke to both leaders, leaving them with identical ratings that show strong dissatisfaction with their performances.

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch
#Newspoll Fed TPP: L/NP 47 (0) ALP 53 (0)
Primary: L/NP 36(0) ALP 37(+1) GRN 9(-1) ON 11(+2) OTH 7(-2)http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/newspoll-turnbull-fails-to-turn-corner-with-power-battle/news-story/79ce414773ab471673e3cf1e1935f1f6 … ($) #auspol

10:11 PM - 18 Jun 2017

Newspoll: Turnbull fails to turn corner
Labor has cemented its gains in voter support after weeks of argument over school funding and energy security, with the latest Newspoll showing the Coalition continues to trail Labor by 47 to 53 ...

[HBS Guy]

Essential: 52:48 to Labor

[HBS Guy]

National shit sheet cries out: Libs regain ground!

Right: 53:47, no significant change from 54:46. (Real support likely between 53–54 to Labor and 46–37 for Libs.

PVs Lib up 2, took 1 point from PHON, where the other one came from doesn’t say. Meaningless anyway.

[HBS Guy]

Fairfax-Ipsos poll: TPP ALP 53 (0) L/NP 47 (0)
Primaries, meh. TBH I don't take Ipsos seriously. 14 GRN? Yeah, nah

[HBS Guy]

ER shows 54:46 to Labor.

Questions on energy show that turdfull persisting with coal are not going to increase support for the Libs. Seriously out of touch in fact.

[HBS Guy]

Leroy @Leroy_Lynch

#Newspoll TPP ALP 54 ​​​(+1) L/NP 46 (-1)

PRI L/NP 36​(​​-1​) ALP 38(​0​) GRN 9(​0​) ON ​8​​(​0) OTH 9(+1) http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nationa ... 5e6f9dce45 … $ #auspol

Polls definitely stuck at 53–54 for Labor and 46–47 for Libs.

Would like a few polls 55:45 or worse, the Lib/Nat conniptions would be a joy to see.

Would like the ALP to mop up some Grn/MrX/ON/Other and boost its primary but 38 is a winning position. Depends on Shorten I guess, needs to show more passion for what can be done to boost jobs etc.

[HBS Guy]

Essential:

53:47

Vote YES! 58:33

There are STILL wankers on OzPol believe that there will be a massive NO! vote.

Even my 97yo Mum thought about it, asked me a question—and voted YES!

89% will vote or (36%) have voted, ending the last hope of the bigots pretending to be christians.

[HBS Guy]

Essential

Marriage equality:

Public support for same-sex marriage is on the rise in the latest Guardian Essential poll, and 47% of the sample say they have already voted in the postal survey.

The weekly survey of 1,841 voters finds headline support for the legalisation of same sex marriage at 61%, compared with 58% a week ago, and opposition on 32%.

Among people who have already voted, a clear majority have cast a yes vote – 64% say they’ve returned a yes ballot and 30% a no ballot.

More than 2:1 in favor!

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Tuesday that an estimated 57.5% of enrolled Australians have already cast their votes in the postal survey, with a month still to go – and just under half of the Guardian Essential survey reported they had now returned their ballots.

This has to be turdfull and the Libs’ worst nightmare: a stupid delaying tactic that shows the electorate overwhelmingly wants marriage equality enacted and feels strongly about it. Another bad effect for them: the rush of young people to enroll and the huge number who updated their roll details so they could vote: these new/updated voters are not going to vote Lib especially if they squib bringing in legislation. OTOH the right wing, the religious nutjobs will be lobbying hard against legislation. It could all have been settled in five minutes long before this.

Hope no real nutjob gets disturbed enough by the overwhelming vote and goes and does something stupid and violent!


Voting:

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Tuesday that an estimated 57.5% of enrolled Australians have already cast their votes in the postal survey, with a month still to go – and just under half of the Guardian Essential survey reported they had now returned their ballots.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/04/support-for-marriage-equality-rises-in-guardian-essential-poll

[HBS Guy]

Some interesting stats from the above Guardian/Essential poll:

“They know it’s a straightforward question about a very simple matter: should lesbian and gay people be treated equally by the law of the land.”

Some Australians reported holding religious beliefs in heaven and hell (40%), creationism (34%), and angels and demons (39%).

Smaller but not insignificant numbers reported belief that climate change is a hoax (21%), vaccines cause autism (14%) and that vibrations from windfarms cause long-term health damage (16%).

STILL lots of nutters around, not just poor old deluded Light!

[HBS Guy]

Essential 54:46

Nothing changed except Mr X was on 3% for a fortnight, now back to the long term 2%—a panel must have voted him a bit higher but that result has washed out again.

55% think there will be a US–North Korea war.

[Aussie]

Essential 54:46

Nothing changed except Mr X was on 3% for a fortnight, now back to the long term 2%—a panel must have voted him a bit higher but that result has washed out again.

55% think there will be a US–North Korea war.

Goes to show how stupid those polled were.

[HBS Guy]

ahahahahaha

[HBS Guy]

Annastacia Palaszczuk’s Labor government in Queensland is in front of its Liberal National party rivals, with One Nation polling 13%, according to a quarterly state snapshot of voting intentions in the Guardian Essential poll.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/12/essential-poll-labor-in-front-in-queensland-and-one-nation-on-13

That 13% has to be seriously understated, 20% seems the more general figure? (it is an internet panel so maybe a lot in remote Qld don’t have good internet?)

[HBS Guy]

Oh dear:

Le voyageur‏ @LeVoyageurOz 8m8 minutes ago More

No number of selfies
childish name calling
fake policy initiatives
union bashing
and media help
will save turnbull and his inept government