Consequences of AGW

For scientific papers on AGW, record happenings in the Arctic and the Greenland, Himalayan and Antarctic icesheets. Also weatherstorms and higher than average rainfalls and other extreme weather events.

Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 16 May 2018, 12:19

Robert Scribbler on why the east coast of the US can expect heavy rain, even “rain bombs.”

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/05/15/warm-oceans-displaced-polar-air-why-the-eastern-u-s-is-likely-to-see-very-severe-rainfall-during-may/

Includes a YouTube Robert made—not a polished presentation but full of information. Definitely above The Moronic’s level of understanding (Snow—so ice age!)

It’s the kind of pattern — within a highly charged atmosphere — that is capable of producing serious instances of severe weather. Heavy rainfall, hail, lightning and tornadoes are all more likely. Factors associated with climate change contributing to the situation include — much warmer than normal ocean surfaces off the U.S. Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast, a much warmer than normal Arctic Ocean region for this time of year, displaced polar air near Hudson Bay, and warmer than normal temperatures over much of the U.S.

As Greenland melt comes more into play, and as temperatures continue to spike higher over the Arctic Ocean in coming years, we can expect to see similar patterns producing greater instability and more intense storms. Particularly for the land zones near the North Atlantic. And so what we are seeing now is a likely prelude of events to come as the Earth continues to warm coordinate with continued fossil fuel burning — with mitigating factors primarily involving reduced carbon emissions.


You can expect to see the snake oil salesman picking examples of heavy rain and more especially hail as “Evidence!” of an ice age even tho the heavy precipitation is due to warm oceans and displaced Arctic air over parts of Canada.

Hail, I repeat once more, is formed high up in the atmosphere in the strong convection of big thunderstorms. That is why hail can fall on a warm January day in Adelaide! Hail has N O T H I N G to do with supposed surface cooling. Look up “hail” in wiki. As the globe heats and more water evaporates off warmer seas into warmer air and storms are fed more heat as well as more moisture you can expect hailstones to increase in size somewhat.

As storms are fed more energy you can expect more lightning—and, yes, the snake oil seller has claimed lightning as a sign of the ice age. Easy when you don’t need to know science to make a case.

I repeat again, if the globe was actually cooling significantly (more than the 0.13°C cooling a GSM would cause) then seas and air would be cooler and evaporation and hence precipitation would be less.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 45468
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 16 May 2018, 12:22

Sea level rise accelerating:

Image
The reference mean sea level (Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2 and Jason-3) since January 1993 (left) is calculated after removing the annual and semi-annual signals.
A 2-month filter is applied to the red points, while a 6-month filter is used on the blue curve.
By applying the postglacial rebound correction (-0.3 mm/year), the  rise in mean sea level has thus been estimated as 3.33 mm/year (mean slope of the plotted data).
Analysing the uncertainty of each altimetry correction made for calculating the GMSL, as well as a comparison with tide gauges gives an error in the GMSL slope of approximately 0.5 mm/year with a 90% confidence interval. (Credits CLS/Cnes/Legos)


Sea levels rise from two causes:

1. Meltwater from glaciers and icesheets as these retreat and destabilise;

2. Thermal expansion as oceans warm. Heat water and it expands.

We have seen how the big glaciers draining the icesheets in East and West Antarctica are retreating. As warm currents from the oceans reach Antarctica the grounding lines, where the boundary between ice resting on bedrock and ice that floats on seawater, retreat, undercutting the glaciers. At some time the ice floating on seawater will break off and float away.

Sea level rise is not uniform:
Image
Combined map of regional patterns of observed sea level (in mm/year). This map can be obtained using gridded, multi-mission Ssalto/Duacs data since 1993, which enable the local slopes to be estimated with a very high resolution (1/4 of a degree on a Cartesian projection). Isolated variations in MSL are thus revealed, mainly in the major ocean currents and ENSO events (Credits EU Copernicus Marine Service, CLS, Cnes, Legos).


Note the strong sea level rise in the Gulf and off the US east coast, a sign of the slowing AMOC.

As RobertScribbler writes:
As the Earth has steadily warmed to 1.1 C above 1880s averages, the oceans of our world have risen. At first, the rate of rise was very mild — a mere 0.6 mm per year during the early 20th Century. However, as the rate of global warming increased and the oceans took in more heat, the middle 20th Century saw sea level rise increase to 1.4 mm per year. By the end of the 20th Century, the polar glaciers had begun to melt in earnest. And from 1990 to the present day, the rate of sea level rise has accelerated to 3.3 mm per year.

Due to more warm water invading the basal regions of glaciers and more ice bergs calving into the world ocean, the annual rate at which ocean levels increase continues to jump higher. And during recent years — from 2010 to 2018 — the world ocean has risen by nearly half a centimeter each year (4.6 mm).

(Since 2010, the rate of sea level rise has again accelerated. And it appears that El Nino years have recently tended to produce strong upward swings in the annual rate of increase. This may be due to El Nino’s tendency to set up stronger cycles of energy transfer to the poles. NOAA presently indicates a 50 percent chance that a mild to moderate El Nino will emerge during the winter of 2018-2019. Will we see another sea level spike at that time should El Nino emerge?


https://robertscribbler.com/2018/05/15/global-sea-level-rise-accelerated-to-4-6-mm-per-year-after-2010/

The coming El Nino will be mild. How long before we get another strong El Nino? What will happen to sea level rise then?

The fact that sea levels are rising completely negates any weak argument that we are in an ice age due to a GSM. I have never seen any of the ice age frauds provide any evidence that we are moving into a GSM. Never.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 45468
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 16 May 2018, 12:22

Sea level rise accelerating:

Image
The reference mean sea level (Topex/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2 and Jason-3) since January 1993 (left) is calculated after removing the annual and semi-annual signals.
A 2-month filter is applied to the red points, while a 6-month filter is used on the blue curve.
By applying the postglacial rebound correction (-0.3 mm/year), the  rise in mean sea level has thus been estimated as 3.33 mm/year (mean slope of the plotted data).
Analysing the uncertainty of each altimetry correction made for calculating the GMSL, as well as a comparison with tide gauges gives an error in the GMSL slope of approximately 0.5 mm/year with a 90% confidence interval. (Credits CLS/Cnes/Legos)


Sea levels rise from two causes:

1. Meltwater from glaciers and icesheets as these retreat and destabilise;

2. Thermal expansion as oceans warm. Heat water and it expands.

We have seen how the big glaciers draining the icesheets in East and West Antarctica are retreating. As warm currents from the oceans reach Antarctica the grounding lines, where the boundary between ice resting on bedrock and ice that floats on seawater, retreat, undercutting the glaciers. At some time the ice floating on seawater will break off and float away.

Sea level rise is not uniform:
Image
Combined map of regional patterns of observed sea level (in mm/year). This map can be obtained using gridded, multi-mission Ssalto/Duacs data since 1993, which enable the local slopes to be estimated with a very high resolution (1/4 of a degree on a Cartesian projection). Isolated variations in MSL are thus revealed, mainly in the major ocean currents and ENSO events (Credits EU Copernicus Marine Service, CLS, Cnes, Legos).


Note the strong sea level rise in the Gulf and off the US east coast, a sign of the slowing AMOC.

As RobertScribbler writes:
As the Earth has steadily warmed to 1.1 C above 1880s averages, the oceans of our world have risen. At first, the rate of rise was very mild — a mere 0.6 mm per year during the early 20th Century. However, as the rate of global warming increased and the oceans took in more heat, the middle 20th Century saw sea level rise increase to 1.4 mm per year. By the end of the 20th Century, the polar glaciers had begun to melt in earnest. And from 1990 to the present day, the rate of sea level rise has accelerated to 3.3 mm per year.

Due to more warm water invading the basal regions of glaciers and more ice bergs calving into the world ocean, the annual rate at which ocean levels increase continues to jump higher. And during recent years — from 2010 to 2018 — the world ocean has risen by nearly half a centimeter each year (4.6 mm).

(Since 2010, the rate of sea level rise has again accelerated. And it appears that El Nino years have recently tended to produce strong upward swings in the annual rate of increase. This may be due to El Nino’s tendency to set up stronger cycles of energy transfer to the poles. NOAA presently indicates a 50 percent chance that a mild to moderate El Nino will emerge during the winter of 2018-2019. Will we see another sea level spike at that time should El Nino emerge?


https://robertscribbler.com/2018/05/15/global-sea-level-rise-accelerated-to-4-6-mm-per-year-after-2010/

The coming El Nino will be mild. How long before we get another strong El Nino? What will happen to sea level rise then?

The fact that sea levels are rising completely negates any weak argument that we are in an ice age due to a GSM. I have never seen any of the ice age frauds provide any evidence that we are moving into a GSM. Never.
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 45468
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 16 May 2018, 12:23

Melting has restarted on the south east coast of Greenland in the last couple of days.

http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/
Abbott & Co are going to cause the mother and father of all recessions—be prepared!
User avatar
HBS Guy
Tractors to Australia
 
Posts: 45468
Joined: 27 Oct 2009, 15:37

Previous

Return to Global Warming and Australian Energy Market

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

cron