Consequences of AGW

For scientific papers on AGW, record happenings in the Arctic and the Greenland, Himalayan and Antarctic icesheets. Also weatherstorms and higher than average rainfalls and other extreme weather events.

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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 06 Jul 2018, 00:13

The heat did spread to the West, West heating up again, wild fires raging:

“The West is burning, and it’s barely July

The heat is breaking temperature records coast-to-coast, drought covers half of the country, and — sure enough — wildfires are already enveloping the West. More than 30 large fires are burning in 12 states right now.

In Utah, dozens of homes have been destroyed and hundreds more are threatened from a largely out-of-control blaze in the eastern part of the state. In Colorado, some of the largest fires in state history have already drawn comparisons to the nightmare fire seasons of 1988 and 2002.

And then there’s California, where the “County fire” began on Saturday near Sacramento and quickly spread out of control, threatening hundreds of homes and growing at a rate of 1,000 football fields an hour. It’s the latest megafire in a state still recovering from the most damaging wildfire season in history.

Wildfires across California have burned more than twice the five-year average so far this year, as of July 1. The County fire alone has burned 70,000 acres — twice the size of San Francisco and more than every other fire in the state this year combined. Over the weekend, smoke and ash from the fire drifted over the Bay Area, reminding residents of last year’s horrific blazes and partially blocking out the sun…”


https://grist.org/article/the-west-is-burning-and-its-barely-july/

Yeah, we have had bushfires in August!

I am thinking of ways to protect my place in Tassie from bush and grass fires: sprinklers, hoses, plenty green plants like comfrey, pigface daisies, lemon balm etc. Lots of green, fruit trees, berry and current bushes, herbs, flowers, veges.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 23 Jul 2018, 06:40

11 wildfires are burning inside the Arctic Circle. Norway, Sweden, Siberia. There were wildfires earlier in Alaska. Not surprising given the heatwage gripping nearly all the northern hemisphere and a fair bit of the south. And idiots are still talking of a miniiceage, pointing to some cold events here without, I reckon in many cases, realising it is winter here! Those who believe the scammers are not very bright, maybe are damaged in some way or are frightened by the thought of AGW, along come some smooth talking scoundrels talking of a miniiceage and they believe them and send the scoundrels money!
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Jul 2018, 12:22

California’s Fires Are Creating Volcanic Clouds
All three of the state’s major blazes are making rare pyrocumulus clouds right now



The speed with which pyrocumulus clouds form and change, combined with the heat of the fire, can lead to quick, massive temperature swings in the atmosphere, producing unpredictable and severe winds. These can exacerbate the intensity of wildfires, and cause them to move or otherwise behave in unpredictable ways. And that all can put the lives of firefighters and the public at risk.


https://www.outsideonline.com/2330891/california-wildfire-pyrocumulus-clouds
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 30 Jul 2018, 00:48

Yes it's a worry. Greece is burning......California has barely gotten through the last lot of fires, and now they're back again.

Europe has been suffering a heatwave.

And so have we.

It's been above 25' degrees here the last few days. In the middle of winter.
And it is DRY.!

Am writing this because have just had a brief but sweet shower... love hearing rain on the roof. :bgrin

BUT ...............

WE are in for a hellish summer... especially if El Nino develops. Cripes. :OMG
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 30 Jul 2018, 01:28

HBS Guy wrote:The heat did spread to the West, West heating up again, wild fires raging:

“The West is burning, and it’s barely July

The heat is breaking temperature records coast-to-coast, drought covers half of the country, and — sure enough — wildfires are already enveloping the West. More than 30 large fires are burning in 12 states right now.

In Utah, dozens of homes have been destroyed and hundreds more are threatened from a largely out-of-control blaze in the eastern part of the state. In Colorado, some of the largest fires in state history have already drawn comparisons to the nightmare fire seasons of 1988 and 2002.

And then there’s California, where the “County fire” began on Saturday near Sacramento and quickly spread out of control, threatening hundreds of homes and growing at a rate of 1,000 football fields an hour. It’s the latest megafire in a state still recovering from the most damaging wildfire season in history.

Wildfires across California have burned more than twice the five-year average so far this year, as of July 1. The County fire alone has burned 70,000 acres — twice the size of San Francisco and more than every other fire in the state this year combined. Over the weekend, smoke and ash from the fire drifted over the Bay Area, reminding residents of last year’s horrific blazes and partially blocking out the sun…”


https://grist.org/article/the-west-is-burning-and-its-barely-july/

Yeah, we have had bushfires in August!

I am thinking of ways to protect my place in Tassie from bush and grass fires: sprinklers, hoses, plenty green plants like comfrey, pigface daisies, lemon balm etc. Lots of green, fruit trees, berry and current bushes, herbs, flowers, veges.



I understand the feeling. My place is bush-covered... with tall tall gums as well.

Best guide is to talk to locals... BUT... not enough these days when unprecedented weather events are happening all over.

There is a mob that makes and sells roof-based sprinkler systems specifically intended for defense against bushfires.That only works when you have town water... otherwise you are reliant on waterpumps, .. and the power will likely go out so then you need a generator etc.

It becomes complicated, so I commend your non-tech approach.... BUT.... we have to face facts.

Dry vegetation burns.


So
..



make sure you do not have vegetation growing up against your house. No mulched garden beds and rockeries... it should all be kept at at least 20 metres from your house walls. I confess that over the years I have allowed my trees to grow closer... too close, really. But you must have a space around your property.. if branches fall, make sure they won't fall on your house.


If you are on tank water, as I am, make sure you have lots of water stored ..in house tanks. Then , a fire-fighting pump becomes useful.

Also, knowledge of surrounding water sources... be they creeks dams or even swimming pools in neighbours properties. Be aware. And good luck.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 30 Jul 2018, 01:58

IF you don't have a dwelling there, then you might as well forget fire issues.
Of course you need to manage weeds and other woody stuff, but if there is no recent history of bushfire, in your area, there is NO point in worrying about it.

If you aren't THERE there is nothing you can do, and different choices of plantings are most unlikely to have any beneficial effect. No person?
Let it burn, and fix it up afterwards.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 30 Jul 2018, 06:16

Main problem is across the road, overgrown land, pines, gorse etc. Dunno if that gets cleaned before summer. Rest is just grass.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 06 Aug 2018, 18:38

New Study Finds Sea Level Rise Accelerating
Global sea level rise has been accelerating in recent decades, rather than increasing steadily, according to a new study based on 25 years of NASA and European satellite data.


This acceleration, driven mainly by increased melting in Greenland and Antarctica, has the potential to double the total sea level rise projected by 2100 when compared to projections that assume a constant rate of sea level rise, according to lead author Steve Nerem. Nerem is a professor of Aerospace Engineering Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, a fellow at Colorado's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and a member of NASA's Sea Level Change team.

If the rate of ocean rise continues to change at this pace, sea level will rise 26 inches (65 centimeters) by 2100 -- enough to cause significant problems for coastal cities, according to the new assessment by Nerem and colleagues from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland; CU Boulder; the University of South Florida in Tampa; and Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. The team, driven to understand and better predict Earth’s response to a warming world, published their work Feb. 12 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

"This is almost certainly a conservative estimate," Nerem said. "Our extrapolation assumes that sea level continues to change in the future as it has over the last 25 years. Given the large changes we are seeing in the ice sheets today, that's not likely."


https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2018/new-study-finds-sea-level-rise-accelerating
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 06 Aug 2018, 21:10

Earth's Soil Is Hyperventilating Thanks To Climate Change
Earth's soil contains roughly twice as much CO2 as Earth's atmosphere — and it's escaping faster and faster.
Credit: Getty
You know it's hot out there when even the soil is hyperventilating.

According to a new study published yesterday (Aug. 1) in the journal Nature, there's about twice as much carbon dioxide (CO2) stored in Earth's soil as there is floating around the atmosphere, and for the last few decades, that underground greenhouse gas has been leaking out at a significantly increased rate.

Based on more than 2,000 sources of climate data taken from ecosystems around the world, a team of soil scientists found that the rate of CO2 released from Earth's soil has increased globally by about 1.2 percent in just 25 years — and you can blame that on hot, hungry microbes.

"We're talking about a huge quantity of carbon," study co-author Vanessa Bailey, a soil scientist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Washington state, said in a statement. "Microbes exert an outsize influence on the world that is very hard to measure on such a large scale."

The breathing Earth
Dirt doesn't actually breathe, of course, but it sort of looks that way when tiny, underground organisms help release the CO2 stored in plant roots, dead leaves and other natural detritus. Hungry microbes gorge on the tasty carbon stored in this plant matter, and then release carbon dioxide as a natural byproduct of this feeding, just as you do when you exhale after a deep breath.

This process is known as "soil respiration," and it's an important complement to photosynthesis — the process by which plants turn CO2, water and light into energy — helping to keep ecosystems around the world running smoothly.

But lately, researchers have found that as global temperatures rise, microbes in the soil have been releasing CO2 faster than plants can snatch it up again. Previous studies have indicated that tree roots and certain microbes both respire more frequently at higher temperatures (up until a certain point, when the intense heat causes the organisms to stop functioning completely). But the exact effects of that increase in respiration had never been studied on a global scale until now.

To better understand the potential links between rising global temperatures and soil respiration, a team of researchers led by Ben Bond-Lamberty at the Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland, College Park, examined data from two huge global nature surveys: the Global Soil Respiration Database and FLUXNET, which collectively draw soil, temperature, rainfall and other data from a network of more than 2,000 sources across several ecosystems.

The data showed that the rate of global soil respiration had increased by about 1.2 percent in the 25-year window between 1990 and 2014. Most of that growth was due to increased microbial action; the tiny creatures in Earth's soil are freeing more and more greenhouse gases from our planet's surface.


https://www.livescience.com/63243-soil-respiration-hyperventilation.html
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 16 Aug 2018, 20:47

Antarctica boosting sea level rise:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/sea-level-rise-due-antarctic-ice-melt-has-tripled-over-past-five-years

The melting and the sea level rise can only get worse.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 16 Aug 2018, 23:38

A grim prospect indeed.
But...
all our own work. :sad


It was 30 degrees here today. Winter isn't over yet.!!

Yesterday there was a wildfire just down on the main road in and out of the Village. Some arsehole probably threw a butt out the window.

This fire season is shaping to be the worst ever.
I am not looking forward to summer.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Aug 2018, 00:21

We actually are having a bit of winter, rain and 14°C maxima.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 17 Aug 2018, 00:27

It won't last mate.. especially not if you live in SA.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Aug 2018, 00:30

As I said, thinking about ways to protect against grass fires and possibly bushfires from the acreage across the road from my block (well, all the blocks in that bit of road.

No mulch bar rock mulch at the front and possibly in the flower/veg/herb patch between the fruit trees and my house. Metal blinds on windows at the front. Really a problem at the front. Make it as green as possible I suppose.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Aug 2018, 00:32

No, just winter getting in a last grumble.

Last longer in Tassie I guess—have climate for my place, must compare to Adelaide, use spreadsheet, work out some stats.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 17 Aug 2018, 00:42

I tend to be complacent about fire, because SEQ is usually , at this time of year, relatively green.

Not this year.
And, like I said earlier, this is still Winter.

Fire season has come early here, and totally understand why NSW is so at risk at the mo. This will spread to all other southern states.
I don't think it's going to get any better.
So I'd say PLANT NOTHING... and remove as much vegetation, green or not from around your home, as possible. If you can manage bare earth? do it.

Live to fight another day.

Now this may sound dramatic.... but this is the worst lead up to Summer I can say for at least 15 yrs. Of course it depends on where you live, and what rains you have received. The dryness of the flora. This IS a big country, BUT.....................


all I can really say to ALL AUSSIES, where-ever you live... GOOD LUCK this summer.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Aug 2018, 00:56

Where my block is no real big areas of trees, only really have to worry about grass fires.

Exception is the acres of wild ground full of gorse, grass, conifers, ti tree etc.

I will examine maps and next April will try and assess risks.

All the building blocks not built on have to be slashed early in summer.

BTW—you clicked us over 102,000 posts! Wheeeeeee and idiots like Agnes and AiA and BaronvonRatShit call this forum dead. Hah! Reports of our death have been greatly exaggerated!
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 17 Aug 2018, 01:17

I DID? I was not aware. :buddy

:yahoo

Seems I drop in at propitious times. A synchronicity of sorts. :bgrin

Like I said... I DID post the 1,000 000 post on the Dr Who thread.... :bgrin
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Aug 2018, 01:27

You can do that here next year :rofl :rofl :rofl
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby pinkeye » 17 Aug 2018, 01:29

Deal :thumb
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Aug 2018, 01:33

OK!
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 17 Aug 2018, 05:34

Ahahaha seems Tassie is getting hit by some stronger than usual winds.

We had some Arctic air hit the east coast, bringing snow to as far north as south Queensland a year or two ago.

Sign of an ice age, of course :roll :roll :roll

I think it is a consequence of the weakening, slowing, chaotic Southern Jet Stream (due to AGW and Polar Amplification of it.) Seems Antarctic air and weather systems can reach us more easily because of that.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Aug 2018, 06:44

brad schrag Retweeted

Jamie Wilson @jamieswilson 4h4 hours ago More

Replying to @sueytonius @Tangomitteckel and 48 others
Accelerating species extinctions✅
Oceans warming✅
Acidification✅
Red tides✅
Dead seas✅
Increasing coral reef bleaching✅
Droughts✅
Heatwaves✅
Arctic & glacial melting✅
Increased risk to food productivity✅
Loss of soil biomass✅
Dying high montane forest✅
#climatechange


Dead seas—increasing areas in oceans where the seawater is markedly deficient in oxygen. Means no fish there, naturally. E.g. see http://polanimal.com.au/viewtopic.php?p=135846#p135846
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Aug 2018, 07:20

Interesting chart re acidifying seas and CO2 emissions:

Image

Atmospheric CO2 rising from us burning fossil fuels. pCO2, “partial pressure of CO2” which you can read as dissolved CO2 and of course as pCO2 rises pH is dropping.

Deniers hate the term “acidification” but that is what is happening when pH drops. Saw the term “dealkalization” used in Twitter just now :rofl :rofl It is to do with the increase in H+ ions as they increase the pH decreases = become more acid.
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Re: Consequences of AGW

Postby HBS Guy » 28 Aug 2018, 07:36

The global CO2-carbonic acid-carbonate system of seawater, although certainly a well-researched topic of interest in the past, has risen to the fore in recent years because of the environmental issue of ocean acidification (often simply termed OA).

Despite much previous research, there remain pressing questions about how this most important chemical system of seawater operated at the various time scales of the deep time of the Phanerozoic Eon (the past 545 Ma of Earth’s history), interglacial-glacial time, and the Anthropocene (the time of strong human influence on the behaviour of the system) into the future of the planet. One difficulty in any analysis is that the behaviour of the marine carbon system is not only controlled by internal processes in the ocean, but it is intimately linked to the domains of the atmosphere, continental landscape, and marine carbonate sediments.

For the deep-time behaviour of the system, there exists a strong coupling between the states of various material reservoirs resulting in an homeostatic and self-regulating system. As a working hypothesis, the coupling produces two dominant chemostatic modes: (Mode I), a state of elevated atmospheric CO2, warm climate, and depressed seawater Mg∕Ca and SO4∕Ca mol ratios, pH (extended geologic periods of ocean acidification), and carbonate saturation states (W), and elevated Sr concentrations, with calcite and dolomite as dominant minerals found in marine carbonate sediments (Hothouses, the calcite-dolomite seas), and (Mode II), a state of depressed atmospheric CO2, cool climate, and elevated seawater Mg∕Ca and SO4/Ca ratios, pH, and carbonate saturation states, and low Sr concentrations, with aragonite and high magnesian calcites as dominant minerals found in marine carbonate sediments (Icehouses, the aragonite seas).

Investigation of the impacts of deglaciation and anthropogenic inputs on the CO2–H2O–CaCO3 system in global coastal ocean waters from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: the last great continental glaciation of the Pleistocene Epoch, 18,000 year BP) to the year 2100 shows that with rising sea level, atmospheric CO2, and temperature, the carbonate system of coastal ocean water changed and will continue to change significantly. We find that 6,000 Gt of C were emitted as CO2 to the atmosphere from the growing coastal ocean from the Last Glacial Maximum to late preindustrial time because of net heterotrophy (state of gross respiration exceeding gross photosynthesis) and net calcification processes.

Shallow-water carbonate accumulation alone from the Last Glacial Maximum to late preindustrial time could account for ~24 ppmv of the ~100 ppmv rise in atmospheric CO2, lending some support to the ‘‘coral reef hypothesis’’. In addition, the global coastal ocean is now, or soon will be, a sink of atmospheric CO2, rather than a source. The pHT (pH values on the total proton scale) of global coastal seawater has decreased from ~8.35 to ~8.18 and the CO3 2- ion concentration declined by ~19% from the Last Glacial Maximum to late preindustrial time.

In comparison, the decrease in coastal water pHT from the year 1900 to 2000 was ~8.18 to ~8.08 and is projected to decrease further from about ~8.08 to ~7.85 between 2000 and 2100. During these 200 years, the CO3 2- ion concentration will fall by ~ 45%. This decadal rate of decline of the CO3 2- ion concentration in the Anthropocene is 214 times the average rate of decline for the entire Holocene!

In terms of the modern problem of ocean acidification and its effects, the “other CO2 problem”, we emphasise that most experimental work on a variety of calcifying organisms has shown that under increased atmospheric CO2 levels (which attempt to mimic those of the future), and hence decreased seawater CO3 2-ion concentration and carbonate saturation state, most calcifying organisms will not calcify as rapidly as they do under present-day CO2 levels. In addition, we conclude that dissolution of the highly reactive carbonate phases, particularly the biogenic and cementing magnesian calcite phases, on reefs will not be sufficient to alter significantly future changes in seawater pH and lead to a buffering of the CO2-carbonic acid system in waters bathing reefs and other carbonate ecosystems on timescales of decades to centuries. Because of decreased calcification rates and increased dissolution rates in a future higher CO2, warmer world with seas of lower pH and carbonate saturation state, the rate of accretion of carbonate structures is likely to slow and dissolution may even exceed calcification.

The potential of increasing nutrient and organic carbon inputs from land, occurrences of mass bleaching events, and increasing intensity (and perhaps frequency of hurricanes and cyclones as a result of sea surface warming) will only complicate matters more. This composite of stresses will have severe consequences for the ecosystem services that reefs perform, including acting as a fishery, a barrier to storm surges, a source of carbonate sediment to maintain beaches, and an environment of aesthetic appeal to tourist and local populations. It seems obvious that increasing rates of dissolution and bioerosion owing to ocean acidification will result in a progressively increasing calcium carbonate (CaCO3) deficit in the CaCO3 budget for many coral reef environments. The major questions that require answers are: will this deficit occur and when and to what extent will the destructive processes exceed the constructive processes?


http://www.geochemicalperspectives.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/GPv2n1.pdf

That is a long abstract! The whole paper is available.
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